Sep 222011

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Sep 222011

Six months ago, I took apart Gartner’s “analysis” of the tablet market direction, calling particular attention to their absolutely insane predictions for Android tablet performance versus the iPad and the insertion of a 2-year gap in their estimates between 2013 and 2015. I assume this gap was so they wouldn’t have to revise 2 more years worth of “predictions” once the reality of what was happening in the market slapped them upside the head repeatedly.

Gartner’s latest numbers reflect such a reality:

Gartner’s research VP Carolina Milanesi explained the numbers for Android were revised because of “high prices, weak user interface and limited tablet applications”, conditions that will inexplicably reverse themselves by 2015. They also predict a 10% share for Microsoft’s Windows tablets by 2015. Might be time to change the bong water over at Gartner HQ.

Let me offer a possible alternative explanation for the revision: your analysis is constrained by your not knowing what the fuck you’re talking about. Let me also paint a picture of future analyses for anyone thinking of shelling out thousands of dollars for Gartner’s market blindness: every quarter, the only numbers that will be in the ballpark of actuals are the ones reported for quarters past. Gartner will continue to use current market data to incrementally revise numbers for the current year, every quarter, ad infinitum.

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