Jul 202010

After Apple’s “Antennagate” press event on Friday left the tech press J-School flunkies murmuring about having no carcass left on the horse to kick, there was still an air of apprehension going into Tuesday’s earnings conference call. Would the 3 day window between the release of the iPhone 4 and the end of the quarter significantly cut into sales? Would iPod sales continue to flag? Would the desktop Mac models continue to pull their weight, or would the spike from the refresh have run its course?

The answers: hell no, meh and hell yes, respectively.

Oh – and Apple destroyed the most bullish of estimates for what seems like the 20th quarter in a row. Seriously, Street: when are you guys going to get a fucking clue?


Revenue: $15.7 billion (vs. $14.75 billion predicted)

Earnings: $3.25 billion or $3.51/share (vs. $3.11/share predicted)

iPads: 3.27 million units sold (tough for analysts to blow that one since Apple has been announcing sales)

Macs: 3.47 million units sold (vs. 3.2 million predicted)

Lowlights (courtesy of WSJ Marketwatch):

Francisco Jeronimo, a mobile analyst with IDC, said Tuesday that the antenna issue may still impact results for the fourth fiscal quarter. His firm’s research indicates that 66% of current iPhone owners were delaying their upgrades until a solution was announced.

My research indicates that IDC is a shill rag and 66% of Francisco Jeronimo’s family thinks he’s a jackhole. I don’t know the compensation basis for IDC analysts, but being right is not among them.

Just goes to show despite the efforts of frothing media putzes and characteristically clueless analysts, Apple just keeps printing money.

Jun 282010

Are you one of those people who pick apart the glaring inconsistencies in political ads and hour-long network dramas? No? Then you’re probably stupid. Pop the blue pill, click ‘back’ on your browser and go back to your daytime TV.

I would say that Microsoft is the master of cherry-picked factual support for advertising, but “mastery” would imply that they do it well. I guess “most egregiously bad abuser” is more the term I’m looking for.

Last week, Microsoft got a little testy about constantly getting kicked around by everyone in the tech media for being the visionless re-hasher of decade-old technology they are. So did they make some earth-shattering announcement that would change the face of computing as we know it? Of course not. They sent out a reminder about how much money they make. In classic Redmond form, this handpicked collection of numbers by Frank X. Shaw, Corporate VP of Corporate Communications (Redundancy Division) is missing a little bit of context. Let’s see if we can add some, shall we?

Number of Windows 7 licenses sold, making Windows 7 by far the fastest growing operating system in history.

Fastest growing? By growth, you’re saying that every new license sold represents a new user. That’s not the case.

Actually interesting questions that won’t be answered: How many of these are actually new users and not people who took Vista off because it sucked so hard? And how many of these licenses are not pre-installed on computers. You know – licenses with an actual margin. I’d bet money it’s less than 10% of those 150 million.

7.1 million – Projected iPad sales for 2010.

58 million – Projected netbook sales in 2010

355 millionProjected PC sales in 2010

So you’re going to sell almost three times as many Windows 7 licenses in 2010 as you did in 2009? Fascinating optimism. Or absolute horseshit – one of the two.

Actually interesting questions that won’t be answered: How many PCs and netbooks end up getting sold in 2010? How much coin does 413 million Windows 7 licenses translate into versus the 7.1 million (LOL@that estimate, by the way) iPads being sold in 2010? Betcha it’s pretty close.

<10 Percentage of US netbooks running Windows in 2008.

96 – Percentage of US netbooks running Windows in 2009.

This year represents the time between when Microsoft thought netbooks would go nowhere (classic prescience on Redmond’s part) and the time it took for them to muscle PC makers into letting them give away XP for nothing. Another shovel-full of cash into the fire in the race to the bottom. Well played, Frank.

Actually interesting questions that won’t be answered: How much revenue was generated from netbooks Windows licensing?

0 – Number of paying customers running on Windows Azure in November 2009.

10,000 – Number of paying customers running on Windows Azure in June 2010.

700,000 – Number of students, teachers and staff using Microsoft’s cloud productivity tools in Kentucky public schools, the largest cloud deployment in the US.

I have no clue what Azure is, so I had to look it up: “Windows Azure™ is a cloud services operating system that serves as the development, service hosting and service management environment for the Windows Azure platform.” OK – that clears nothing up. Here’s what I do know: 0 -10,000 customers in 7 months? Killer launch, guys.

And the 700,000 Kentucky public school users of Microsoft’s cloud productivity tools? You mean the state that has an adult illiteracy rate of 40% and ranks 47th in the nation for percentage of residents with a bachelor’s degree? Congratulations on that accomplishment. I can see the wall plaque in Redmond now.

Actually interesting questions that won’t be answered: What the fuck is Azure?

16 million Total subscribers to largest 25 US daily newspapers.

14 Million Total number of Netflix subscribers.

23 million Total number of Xbox Live subscribers.

Let’s start with the first number. I’ve played “which of these things is not like the others?” on Sesame Street for years and my record is flawless. What this number has to do with the other two is beyond my skill set. Is this supposed to be total number of people who…subscribe? to? stuff? Or something?

The real comparison, I assume, is between the second and third numbers, which is indeed interesting. It’s interesting that they compare the number of subscriptions for a U.S.-only video streaming service with the global subscriptions for Microsoft’s 6 year-old online gaming platform – that also recently added Netflix as one of its services.

Actually interesting question that won’t be answered: How many times has the fighter-jet-loud XBox 360 been used to access Netflix streaming content vs. the number of times someone has just fired up a browser – or even the Netflix iPad app – to do the same thing?

21.4 million Number of new Bing search users in one year.

You mean people who used Bing to search once? This is a year?

Actually interesting question that won’t be answered: How hilariously insignificant that number is compared to Google’s. I’d also like to know Microsoft’s “new user” to “dollars invested” ratio.

24% Linux Server market share in 2005.

33% Predicted Linux Server market share for 2007 (made in 2005).

21.2% Actual Linux Server market share, Q4 2009.

Let me see if I can get this straight: you like this number because in 2005 Linux extrapolated growth to go from 24 to 33% and their market share has actually fallen 3%. Golf clap? And your sources for the 2009 data are IDC, as reported by Preston Gralla at Computerworld. If there are any 2 entities in the Windows Shillaverse who have fellated Microsoft any harder, I have yet to find them. And I look.

8.8 million Global iPhone sales in Q1 2010.

21.5 million Nokia smartphone sales in Q1 2010.

55 million Total smartphone sales globally in Q1 2010.

439 million Projected global smartphone sales in 2014.

So this is the extent to which you’ve pissed away any market share you had in smartphones? No? Oh, I get it: this is the market you’re going to totally own once the Windows Phone 7 Series 7 Phone OSey Thing comes out. We’re all holding our breaths – honest.

Actually interesting question that won’t be answered: The number of Windows Mobile device sales in 2010.

$5.7 Billion – Apple Net income for fiscal year ending Sep 2009.

$6.5 Billion – Google Net income for fiscal year ending Dec 2009.

$14.5 Billion – Microsoft Net Income for fiscal year ending June 2009.

The Apple number is linked to Hoover’s. I don’t see $5.7 billion anywhere for Apple. I do see $8.235 billion listed for net income. How can this be?

Anyone who wanted to thoroughly report a comparison of net income – as opposed to a lazy, half-assed comparison designed to make their company look better – would know that on January 25, 2010, Apple filed a Form 10-K/A to amend its Form 10-K for the year ended September 26, 2009 to reflect the retrospective adoption of the new accounting principles. The $5.7 billion number, I assume, was the originally-reported number. I say “assume” because the number was actually corrected in the Hoover’s link given by Shaw, but somehow misreported by him. Amazing how that happened.

$23.0 billion – Total Microsoft revenue, FY2000.

$58.4 billion – Total Microsoft revenue, FY2009.

$7.98 billion – Total Apple revenue, FY2000

$42.9 billion – Total Apple revenue, FY2009

I like the slope of my graph better.

And then there’s the whole market cap thingy. I heard that means something. Apple’s now worth more than you and Dell combined. Some advice for Frank X. Shaw: 1. putting the X in your name makes you look like a pretentious tool. Get fucked with that middle initial shit. 2. Instead of selecting numbers that still get it up for you and don’t fool anyone but the most naive investor, maybe try looking at some numbers that are actually relevant to your “competitive” position?

May 262010

It took some time, but the inevitable has happened: as of 2:15 pm today, Apple is worth more than Microsoft.

The pwnage of Microsoft represents another milestone in the enhancement of users’ relationships with the stuff of their lives and work ever since Jobs took back the helm in 1997. We expect more insane greatness in the years to come.

The Apple enthusiast community would also like to take a moment to thank Microsoft for consistently dismissing, deriding and failing to emulate Cupertino’s success. Your fat heads and bloated carcass helped make this moment possible.


Jan 252010

Is there any stopping this wagon train? As the country slowly crawls out of an economic slump, Apple continues to kick the crap out of estimates in every category of profitability.

Unit sales of Macs and iPhones both sold at record levels, with the revamp of the iMacs boosting units above the million mark for the first time ever this quarter. Earnings were announced at $3.67 per share, up from $2.50 a year ago.

Macworld, as usual, has a nice recap of the earnings call.

These are lofty times, Macheads.

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Oct 192009

According to The Wall Street Journal, the analysts have finally shaken a little bit of the stupid out of their Q4 estimates for Apple:

Investors have grown accustomed to Apple crushing Wall Street estimates, so there are strong expectations for the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter, which ended September. Nearly 20 analysts have lifted price targets since September.

Analysts finally stopped notching their estimates at an average of $9.2 billion revenue and a profit of $1.42 a share.  So I guess the days of Apple catching analysts with their pants down are over, right?


This afternoon, Apple reported Q4 revenue of $9.87 billion and a net quarterly profit of $1.67 billion, or $1.82 per diluted share, destroying every estimate on the Street.  You can take your pick of summaries, but Apple Investor News is a nice aggregator.

Apple must still be exploiting that lull in anticipation of Windows 7.

Oct 152009

Apple holds its quarterly earnings call on Monday, which means that analysts are tripping over themselves trying to anticipate Mac sales for the quarter.  Both Gartner and IDC predict Apple continuing to buck the trend – to the tune of 7 – 12% growth, depending on who you ask.

The folks at IDC (the same IDC that found that “Windows is cheaper than Linux“) cannot understand why people continue to buy Macs.  I mean, WTF?!

“Their sales just seem to defy all logic,” [IDC’s] O’Donnell repeated. “There are obviously a certain number of people buying Macs even in the face of a recession.”

There are also a certain number of people who persist in their employment despite having their heads cemented up their asses.

Jul 232009

Pity poor Microsoft.  Coming off the heels of Apple’s record-setting quarter, Redmond…well…

Got absolutely annihilated.

Microsoft whiffed on analysts’ predictions to the tune of one and a quarter billion dollars.  The traditional sinks – online services and the Entertainment and Devices group (Xbox 360, Zune and mobile phone software) – continued their crimson streak in the books while the money-printing Windows and Office monopolies experienced sharp declines.

Microsoft Chief Financial Officer Chris Liddell stated “there are some signs that we’ve seen the worst” from the economy, and that, “the spending environment is stabilizing on a sequential basis.”  There’s a recession?  Guess the economy doesn’t affect us all the same way, does it Chris?

Enjoy the schadenfreude, Macheads.

Jul 222009

So AAPL crushed the Street estimates yet again (yawn) and analysts, always quick to hop on a good thing once it’s happened, are bullish on the company for Q3.  Oddly, Apple’s third-quarter guidance of 34 percent gross margin and $1.18 – $1.23 in earnings per share was uncharacteristically optimistic, leaving analysts wondering whether Cupertino was really starting to take their roles seriously and have stopped jerking them around like they’ve done for…well…forever.

LOL.  Right.

Apple doesn’t do optimistic, especially with unemployment numbers hitting 10% in several states.  The game Apple plays is low-balling estimates at the conference call so they can smash them at the next one.  If they were to ever come in under their own guidance, it would be disastrous, especially since some of the smarter analysts are wise to SJ’s game.  For them to jack up their estimates in this economy, there’s got to be something in the pipeline, kiddies.   Something big.

Only time will tell (yes – that’s a joke).

Jul 212009

It’s time for Apple to report on earnings yet again‚ kiddies.  And the tech analyst keystone cop routine continues.  The beat’s worst weatherman is continuing the “yeah‚ but” style of analysis they teach at Harvard.  The consensus from the Street has Apple reporting earnings at $1.16 per share and 10% YOY growth.


Apple will stomp these estimates for 2 simple reasons: 3GS and MBP.  We know the 3GS blew past predicted sales and it looks like the price cut in the MacBook Pro line may make June one for the record books at Apple.   Get ready for the “boom”‚ indeed.

Update: $1.35/share on $8.34B in revenue – a new record for a non-holiday quarter.

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