Imagine all the hand-wringing and chair tossing in Redmond since Apple released the iPad in 2010. First the iPhone, now this? We’ve been poking our fat fingers at tablet PC’s for a decade to choruses of laughter and Apple swoops in with another touch-based product? Such embarrassment. Now imagine all that frustration being channeled into the next version of Windows “codenamed” Windows 8 and this video will make more sense to you.

You wanted touch? Windows 8 has touch, goddammit!

 

I can honestly say that some of the features debuted look like a fresh take on a mobile OS. Some sensible gesturing, a cool way of interacting with 2 apps simultaneously. Here’s the problem: this UI is a response to the iPad. There’s a reason why Apple segregated iOS and OS X. In classic Microsoft “Windows everywhere” fashion, they’re attempting to layer a touch-based interface with yummy buzzwords like “HTML5″ and “JavaScript” over the top of a desktop and file system. How will people using a keyboard and mouse interact with this layer? How happy will people be swiping and tablet-typing in Excel?

 

If this is the trajectory Microsoft is going to continue on, they’re headed for head-on collision between their legacy users and their desperate 3-years-too-late attempt to enter the touch OS market.

 

 

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Google’s Android OS for mobile devices will doom Apple’s iOS soon. Witness the impending savage brutality:

The analyst’s conclusion: Android will overtake iOS by July of this year. Looks pretty obvious from this graph, right? Not really.

 

1. Where did you people learn statistics?

Wanna hear something awesome? I will be a millionaire by the the time I retire and I have the statistics to prove it. You see: I found $100 bill on the street today. If you assume that I will find $100 on the street every day for *cough* *ahem* *cough* years, and allow for compounding at a modest interest rate, I will be a millionaire around 65. Screw the IRA!

Distimo used the February-March 2011 month-to-month data to project the June numbers. I know this because they say so in their write-up. Taking month-to-month growth of an app ecosystem and extending a line from it is as meaningless an exercise as taking any 2 short-term data points and extending a trend line from the segment formed. And speaking of drawing…

 

2. Where did you people learn to draw?

Maybe it’s me, but do you see the line come off a little “flat” for iOS in March and get a little goosed for Android around mid April? You guys know something we don’t? Wanna let us in on it?

 

3. Try looking up “ringtones” in the Android Market.

Wanna guess how many of these apps are conduits for pirated, copyright/trademark-violating properties? If you guessed “a shit-ton”, you’d be correct. People used to joke about how many fart apps were in the App Store. The Android Market wishes it had apps as valuable as the worst fart app ever put up. Distimo does note that Android now has more free apps than the App Store. Nothing screams “make money here!” to app developers as effectively as having more stuff not worth paying for in your market.

 

4. So I guess the iPad doesn’t count now?

We’re comparing OS markets, but we’re leaving out devices that make up part of the market ecosystem. I guess if you want a graph that fits well in landscape orientation, you have to cut some corners. Like not drawing our lines straight. Or making that ziggy line on the y-axis between 50,000 and 100,000 on a graph that spans 0 to 400,000. Hallmarks of a company that should be taken seriously.

 

If you’re banking on Android overtaking iOS in the near future, you’d feel a lot better if you sought out analysis that actually makes sense, as opposed to getting it from another no-name firm with zero track record looking to make a quick buck by using shitty statistics poorly.

 

Gartner is one of the most recognizable names in IT research. TMA doesn’t concern himself with most of what they do, because all consultants are useless people you pay to tell you what time it is by having them look at your watch.  If their smartphone market predictions are any indication, you’d be better off throwing a dart at a board. Seriously: it’s like their firm is populated by Scott Moritz clones.

Anyway, Gartner’s most recent forecasts for Apple’s iOS devices are a lot like their past predictions. Let’s take a look:

Continue reading »

 

At the height of Android tablet fever, right before people got their hands on the iPad 2, Motorola’s Xoom was considered the device that would give Apple a run for their money. Once the price points were introduced (they were the same as the original iPad i.e. cheaper than the Xoom) and the thickness and weight specs were unveiled (making the Xoom look like a last-call at the pub hookup), a lot of the enthusiasm was sapped from the Motorola camp. But the Xoom still had that sweet 1280 x 800 display and awesome Tegra2 dual core processor, so there was still optimism that the raw performance of the device would at least be able to hang with the iPad.

Well, they were half right. The Xoom is indeed faster than the iPad in most of the graphics tests run by the good folks over at Anandtech. But unfortunately the new A5 chip used by Apple in the iPad 2 absolutely buries it. Like turning-away-a-little-embarrassed-because-I-feel-badly “buries”. Full coverage of the carnage here.

 

Since just before Apple’s introduction of the iPhone 3Gs, TMA has felt a twinge of anxiety every time Apple introduces a new mobile device. It goes something like this: Apple breaks ground with an innovative new device that sends the competition to their photocopiers for 9 months or so. The first run-offs get laughed out of the marketplace, but like a blind sniper ranging his target, manufacturers’ offerings land ever closer to the original, their shots approaching the same zip code around the time of the Apple event. Some hardware specs start nudging into Apple’s offering. Pundits shift from the “Apple is great, but” mode they use to bitch about the company’s manufacturing processes or App Store approval policies – because no popular Apple-related news survives without some antagonism in the title – to “Apple needs to respond to legitimate competitive threat” mode. Knowing that Apple only does one of these things once a year, the niggling sets in: will Apple miss a beat this time? Will they improve their product in too small an increment to survive this year’s onslaught of knock-offs?

Then, of course, Apple releases an update that stomps the wannabes back into their developmental stone ages for another 9 months. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Today, the latest beam of vermin-scattering illumination came courtesy of the iPad line, delivered by an on-sabbatical Steve Jobs. The iPad 2 is faster, lighter and packs front and rear-facing cameras and a couple of snazzy new peripherals. A couple of things I found interesting:

  1. Jobs made a point of mentioning that the iPad2 could stream video in 1080p. Because Apple hasn’t historically been one to offer a feature that isn’t supported by its media, this suggests that 1080p content could be coming to iTunes.
  2. We got a preview of the iPhone 5 processor: the A5. Sporting dual cores, its 9x faster than the A4.
  3. Just when you thought cases couldn’t be interesting, Apple finds a way to turn a protective covering into thinly-veiled sex. The use of magnets in the iPad’s bezel and the minimalism of the new Smart Covers is classic Apple.
  4. I was rolling my eyes for the first 30 seconds of the Garageband demo, but by the time the “Touch Instruments” came around, I was intrigued.

So once again, Apple has driven the majority of the tech press back to their holes with a superior mobile device update. Not to worry: they’ll be right back at their keyboards as soon as Jobs says something too candidly for their sensitive ears or does something a for-profit company would do to succeed.

 

A while back, I wrote about a sad panda Steve Ballmer who, months after poking an HP/Windows conflagration called “Slate” at CES 2010, had HP announce they were yanking the device from production in favor of developing their own OS via their Palm acquisition. Whereas in the past, this kind of betrayal would have led to scorched earth in 5 mile radius around HP’s Palo Alto headquarters, in 2010 all Microsoft could do was tear up quiver-lipped and choke on the new normal: that Microsoft was no longer a player and can’t afford to burn any of its partners, no matter how overtly or spectacularly they embarrass the company. In a huff, Microsoft spitefully fired Robbie Bach, grabbed a couple of pints of Ben and Jerry’s and passed out on the couch during a “Drop Dead Diva” marathon. So I hear.

It looks like HP is making good on its emasculation: enter the HP TouchPad, a 9.7” tablet (*yawn*) running a jumbo version of Palm’s WebOS. It will be available this summer, meaning like every Palm product, it will be competing with the newly-minted version of Apple’s product – in this case the iPad2 – which means it’ll bomb.

But I appreciate HP taking one for the team to make Ballmer look like a bigger douche. Not that he needed any help.

 

Free shit will buy you all kinds of goodwill. Why do you think they give you toasters when you open checking accounts? Apparently Google is looking to cash in a chunk of it by announcing that they will be phasing out support for H.264 in its Chrome browsers and throwing its development muscle behind WebM, a codec they bought with OnM last year. Ars Technica’s Peter Bright lays out a number of reasons why this is bad for the Open Web, and a minor consistency problem Google seems to have with their application of “freedom”:

“At the very least, there appears to be a significant inconsistency between the company’s actions regarding video support, and the rest of its browser. If it’s going remove features for poorly-articulated ideological reasons, it would surely make sense to apply that ideology consistently.”

That would include removing support for Flash, MP3, AAC and H.264 support for its Android devices – to name a few. Or Google could just admit this is an attempt to stymie the use of HTML5 <video> with H.264, a transition from Flash that looked likely to consummate before Google’s announcement. And what alternatives do web developers have? They could continue to use Flash for the foreseeable future – which is far and away more encumbered than H.264 – or they could encode their video twice for current Flash via H.264 (shockingly, Adobe’s Flash has yet to support WebM. Must be tracking the same development schedule as a usable mobile Flash) and once for HTML 5 (WebM) users. Suffice it to say Google’s announcement all but guarantees the former. Guess which encoding is also trumpeted by Google as the primary advantage of their mobile devices over iOS devices?

And I’m sure the timing of the announcement: basically simultaneous with the Verizon iPhone. You know, the thing that will crush Android’s market share in the U.S? Anyone who thinks Google’s announcement to ditch H.264 is about the “Open Web” and not about making a power play against Apple’s mobile devices has their head up their ass.

 

Paul Thurrott reminds me a lot of Charlie, the main character from “Flowers for Algernon”. If you’re one of the 8 people who didn’t have this short-story-turned-novel inflicted on you in the 7th grade – or never made it to 7th grade – the story is an allegory about how life is enriched through the acquisition of power (in this case intelligence) and its subsequent decline when the lights go out. Through an experimental operation, Charlie temporarily acquires super-intelligence, transforming him from retarded (the technical term, not the nonchalant descriptive term TMA uses to describe Windows UI elements) menial worker to someone with an almost godlike level of consciousness. Written as a series of journal entries, Charlie’s progress is tracked from retarded to super genius – and back again – after the effects of the augmentation procedure dissolve.

The thin analogy here is that Thurrott’s entire career is derived from Microsoft’s artificial ascendancy through its theft of intellectual property and abuse of monopoly power, followed by an inevitable and seemingly never-ending fall. As long as Microsoft’s star shone brightly, Thurrott’s career blossomed. He was a speed dial call for several tech news outlets, enjoying numerous television appearances, paid speaking engagements, podcasts – you name it, Thurrott did it. But as the source of his prolificacy was exposed again and again as a company as likely to produce cold fusion as anything remotely attractive to customers in a competitive market, his defense of Redmond  became evermore nonsensical screed, sounding more like it came from someone who needed to wear protective gear to keep from hurting themselves than from a respected member of the tech journalism community. Some selected gems from the mouth/fingertips of Charlie:

“The New York Times asks, “With so much going for them why, eight months after the iPad’s release, is the design of so many of those apps so boring?”
To which I answer: They’re boring because the iPad is boring. Rather than create an environment that was specially tailored to the unique iPad form factor, Apple instead chose to simply stretch the iPhone UI out to meet the size of the new device, making only small changes to accommodate the additional onscreen real estate.”

“When you go out and about with just an iPad, you’re sending a message that you’re not going to contribute. You’re just there to consume. This is why the iPad is, to my mind, uniquely unsuitable in the workplace. Knowledge workers don’t just read documents. They comment on them, edit them, send feedback. They contribute…The iPad is not a business tool. In fact, for most people, it never will be. (And those who contort their workflow to make this possible are, of course, simply trying too hard to justify their vanity purchase.)” Ed. The use of the ellipse here is not to hide the part of the quote containing its compelling logic, as is the case in most tech blogging, but simply an attempt to staunch the hemorrhaging stupidity.

“There’s been a lot written about Apple’s iPad, but little of it, to date, has reflected the very real problems with this device. I’d like to correct this, not because the iPad is horrible, but because the iPad is simply good. And this is not what those in the lamestream media would have you believe. Instead of actually reviewing the iPad objectively, they have opted to ape Apple’s marketing mantra, calling it “magical” or “innovative” or, worst of all, “a game changer.” It is none of those things. It is just good.”

This is all on one topic. Paul’s entire body of mystifyingly bad analysis is probably the largest on the internet.  You might be tempted to feel sorry for Paul, much like the sympathy one would have for the intellectually challenged protagonist in Keyes’ book.  It’s much more likely, however, that Paul’s position as the last person religiously fluffing Microsoft and bashing Apple is nothing more than garden variety hit-whoring schtick as opposed to the expression of below-average intelligence. OK: well below average intelligence. The tip-off is that he spells most of his words correctly.

And so concludes TMA’s induction ceremony for our third member of Douchebag’s Row: Paul Thurrott. Welcome to your place among the internet’s elite FUDruckers, Paul: you should feel right at home.

 

So you’ve read about the financial difficulties of running a newspaper because of competition from lazy, incompetent news aggregators that don’t check sources and don’t provide much critical value. Print media is struggling to find its way in the digital economy, even though their role of honest broker is one of the most important in all of media. Bloomberg gives us a good example of what we’re losing.

The premise of “Sprint Lures AT&T iPad Users With Portable Wi-Fi Hotspots” is that the introduction of AT&T’s tiered pricing for 3G data and the exclusivity of Apple’s contract has created an opportunity for Sprint. For only $59.99 (or $30 more than AT&T’s 2 GB/month data plan), you can have unlimited data back. Tell me what these statements would lead you to believe, or risk stupidity blindness by reading it yourself:

Sprint’s palm-sized Overdrive 3G/4G hotspot device allows users to connect to the lower-priced Wi-Fi-only iPad from anywhere the carrier has coverage.

Sprint Chief Executive Officer Dan Hesse has said the Overland Park, Kansas-based carrier has no plans to end unlimited data plans.

(Portland resident Bob) Morgan said he’s found the Overdrive to deliver 3G speeds where other carriers don’t reach, such as on 11,300-foot Mount Hood in Oregon.

You’d think that coverage would be universal across their entire network. Well, as “universal” as coverage gets on a network shittier than AT&T’s anyway.

Well, nowhere in the process of regurgitating the mindless drivel from the PR flacks at Sprint did it occur to Greg Bensinger that he should ask about the universality of this great deal. Because it only applies to Sprint’s 4G network, which makes for one of the most hilarious coverage maps in telecommunications. Seriously, see if you can discern one 4G coverage area on Sprint’s website when you zoom out to the U.S. view.  3G is capped at 5GB/month. This restriction is mentioned a total of zero places in the article. It’s not even implied.

Oh – and about those intentions of keeping data unlimited? If Sprint really had the balls required to steal customers from AT&T, they’d stop being grossly disingenuous with their media enemas and either open up their “unlimited” plan to include 3G or guarantee that 4G would be unlimited for life for those signing up. Because these great sounding proclamations about unlimited data sound an awful lot like AT&T and Verizon did last year.

 

I threw up 5 times this morning to fit into this bikini!

You may have seen Amazon’s cute ad for its Kindle e-reader recently. It depicts a dork with an iPad and a bikini-clad model with a Kindle, both reading from their devices poolside. One is struggling to read his glossy screen while the other is breezing through her electronic copy of Self magazine  (oops – that’s not available on the Kindle) Pride and Prejudice. And at $139, our model quips “I actually paid more for these sunglasses”. Check and mate Jeff Bezos!

The problem is that Amazon just laid out the entirety of its differential value proposition in that commercial. Sort of like the shitty movie with the awesome 2 minute trailer, that’s as good as it’s going to get. For $139, that might be disposable income for some, but if you’re in the market for devices that can read books, are you really going to drop $139 when you could have a device that does video, email and has access to a quarter million apps for twice as much? Book nuts will buy a Kindle to read to their 5 cats. Anyone who has thought about doing more with their device won’t.

Oh, and people who fry themselves poolside in 2010 with the regularity that would make the Kindle a clear “buy” should be making arrangements for their skin grafts now.

TMA is now at 100 posts. Thanks to all you comment spammers for giving me something to do with my free time. Try clicking through some ads.

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