Happy New Year to the TMA readership. My resolution: 2560 x 1440.
/boom-tish. Try the Salisbury steak.
With a new year, writers across the land feel compelled to make a bunch of baseless predictions and tech is no exception. I came across some from Google employee Tim Bray in his “ongoing” blog. I didn’t find any of the prognostications in “Year-end View of the Mobile Market”Â particularly insightful or interesting, but they do speak volumes about how Google thinks. Mercifully, Bray does prepare readers for how patently obvious many of his predictions are. I’ve taken up the challenge of summarizing each of his “things that seem obvious” in 5 words or less. You can click through to see how I did.
In 2011, the smartphone market will/be/continue to (OK, I cheated a bit):
- Sell a lot of phones
- Further squeeze “dumb” phone sales
- Apple, Android > RIM, Nokia, Microsoft
- Windows 7 Phones: Verdict Unclear
Then he says something about a $500 contract free phone being less than a $199 phone with a contract and wonders when someone will offer financing. Like they have for appliances. Really.
So what are Bray’s not-so-obvious things?
- The major barrier for tablets replacing laptops? “High-speed low-friction text input”. Translation: the opposite of Android’s touchscreen input.
- “Iâ€™m increasingly coming to think that people buy phones based on the quality and volume of old-fashioned advertising put behind the products. Not coincidentally, not only are the iPhones and iPad excellent devices, they have what is to my eye probably the best advertising in the mobile industry.” Ladies and gentlemen: our first moneyball. The difference between Apple’s and Android’s relative successÂ is marketing. You can see this theory expanded on over at Paul Thurrott’s SuperSite.
- Apple is going to do a 7″ device. That’s certainly not so obvious. In fact, that’s about 3 colors of the rainbow into Fantasyland. Why will Apple do a 7″ device? “(It) still fits in one hand and you can use for four hours in a row sitting up.” Does Bray mean you can’t use an iPad sitting up for 4 hours? I certainly can. Does he mean having a device that can be extended at arm’s length for 4 hours? Try doing that holdingÂ nothing. He concludes emphatically with “This argument isÂ over“, and by the italics you can tell he means it. They should bring Bray in for closing arguments. He could be a Mariano Rivera-esque consultant to defense attorneys. James Spader’s character in Boston Legal just peed his pants a little.
But Bray is at his most compelling in the section titled “Apple vs. Android”, where he pits the advertising powerhouse in Cupertino against the Open Source champions in Mountain View. Who wins?
“I think Apple will sell a ton of devices because theyâ€™re good, and superbly marketed. I think a bunch of people will sell a ton of Android devices because theyâ€™re good and there are so many options for different needs and networks and price-points.”Â Emphasis mine
Both are good devices, but that goddamn marketingÂ – those fucking unicorn tears – that’s what lands Apple those insanely high margins EVEN THOUGH THEY’RE ON ONE CARRIER IN THE U.S.!
Let me break it down for you, Tim. The difference – that most obvious of obvious factors you allude to but don’t quite concede – is Verizon. Here’s an illustration of Verizon’s current smartphone unit sales, a period of time I like to call “Before iOS” or “BiOS”, or as you’ll come to remember them: the Salad Years.
This is what will happen at “Zero Hour”, which is immediately after the iPhone becomes available on Verizon. This is also the beginning of “In the year of our Jobs” or “AiOS”.
Finally, once most people are able to rid themselves of their existing contracts and avoid cancellation fees, the landscape should be pretty-well stabilized. Until the iPhone 5…
To wrap up the piece, Bray waxes optimistic about future of the Android platform”
“And thereâ€™s nothing fundamental in Android that would get in the way of a industrial-design and user-experience rock-star team, whether at Google or one of the handset makers…”,
And there’s nothing fundamental in the way of my becoming the next Justin Bieber. I can inflect my speaking voice in a way that qualifies as singing, even though I’m not something you’d pay to listen to – or stick around for long if it were free. I have a blog, so there’s really minimal distance between, say, an entry in Douchebag’s Row and some hit single that makes sane people claw at their eyes. I can play chopsticks on the piano, so I am musically inclined – fundamentally. Everything between here and the Top 10 is details.
“…testing the hypothesis that these things are central to Appleâ€™s success.”
Testing the hypothesis that something besides the snappy songs in those ads are what make Apple the most valuable brand in theÂ technologyÂ sector. Because – you know – they’re engineers. They need to test all hypotheses, no matter how unlikely.
I’m picturing the Android team’s faces when smartphone unit sales areÂ announcedÂ for the first and second quarter of 2011. The genuine looks ofÂ befuddlement will be the best part.